Monsoon Update 07 July 2026 — Trough Shifts Northward, Fresh Low Likely Over North Bay of Bengal 12–16 July; Active Monsoon Spell Along Himalayan Foothills and Eastern India

The VayuMet model's 07 July 2026 run brings important updates to the sub-seasonal outlook. The low-pressure system (LPS) that drove very heavy to extremely heavy rain over the Konkan, Maharashtra, and Odisha coasts from 04–06 July has moved northwest and is expected to merge with the monsoon trough around 09 July. This merger signals a significant easing of precipitation activity along the Maharashtra coast from 09 July — bringing much-needed relief from the devastating rainfall of recent days. As the trough absorbs the LPS energy and shifts northward, the monsoon circulation reorganises for its next phase: between 12–16 July, a fresh low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal. With the trough oriented toward the Himalayan foothills in the west and the Bay system to the east, active monsoon heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East UP foothills, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. Concurrently, as the trough shifts northward and away from the central plains, northwest India — Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi — is likely to experience significant heat stress, with temperature anomalies of +8 to +12°C above normal persisting through the 12–16 July window. In the near term, Northeast India (Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram) remains active, Eastern Rajasthan (Jhalawar) receives its first organised monsoon rain, and the Malwa plateau in Madhya Pradesh sees organised heavy rainfall on 08–09 July.

India Meteorological Department Monsoon Status — 07 July 2026

Chart Analysis — VayuMet Model 07 July 2026 00Z

VayuMet Model · Mean Sea Level Pressure · 07–11 July (left) and 12–16 July (right) · Contours at 2 hPa · Anomaly vs 1981–2010 NCEP R2

Mean Sea Level Pressure — LPS Merges with Trough, Fresh Bay Low Likely 12–16 July

The 07–11 July panel shows the LPS from the Odisha coast now tracking northwest, with a negative pressure anomaly of −6 to −9 hPa over northeast India and the Bengal region. The system is expected to merge into the monsoon trough around 09 July, at which point it transfers its vorticity to the trough and dissipates as a discrete centre. This merger shifts the trough northward and reduces the low-level convergence that was driving the Maharashtra coast rainfall. In the 12–16 July panel, a fresh low-pressure centre develops over the north Bay of Bengal, providing a new moisture source from the east. The trough now extends from the Himalayan foothills in the west toward the Bay system in the east — a configuration that concentrates active monsoon rainfall along the foothills and eastern states rather than over the central plains.

VayuMet Model · 5-day Cumulative Rainfall and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 07–11 July (left) and 12–16 July (right)

Precipitation — Maharashtra Relief by 09 July; Foothills and Eastern India Active 12–16 July

The 07–11 July panel shows positive rainfall anomalies over northeast India (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Mizoram), eastern Rajasthan (Jhalawar), and the Malwa plateau in Madhya Pradesh. Critically, the Mumbai–Konkan–Maharashtra coast signal drops sharply compared to 04–06 July — as the LPS moves northwest and its interaction with the Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet (LLJ) weakens, the sustained extremely heavy rainfall along the Maharashtra coast eases. By 09 July, activity along the west coast moderates to scattered heavy rain rather than the organised very heavy to extremely heavy events of recent days. In the 12–16 July panel, the positive anomaly builds along the sub-Himalayan foothills — Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand — and strengthens across Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal as the fresh Bay low channels moisture northwestward through the eastern trough arm.

VayuMet Model · Mean 2 m Temperature and Anomaly vs June Long Term Mean 1991–2020 · 07–11 July (left) and 12–16 July (right)

2 m Temperature — Foothills Cooling as Active Spell Builds

The 07–11 July panel shows persistent heat over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi with anomalies of +8 to +12°C above normal — heat continuing despite the monsoon onset of 02 July, as the monsoon trough has not yet fully established across northwest India. By 12–16 July, temperatures along the Himalayan foothills and in Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal fall significantly as the active monsoon rainfall arrives with enhanced cloud cover and evaporative cooling. However, far western Rajasthan, yet to receive the monsoon, remains hot throughout the period.

VayuMet Model · Mean 850 hPa Wind Speed and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 07–11 July (left) and 12–16 July (right)

850 hPa Wind — LLJ Easing as LPS Moves Northwest; Bay Low Feeds Eastern India 12–16 July

The 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km altitude) wind analysis for 07–11 July shows the northwestward-tracking LPS maintaining its cyclonic anomaly over the Bengal–northeast sector, while the Arabian Sea Low-Level Jet (LLJ) — the low-altitude southwesterly wind ribbon that drove the Konkan and Maharashtra extreme rain episode — eases toward normal as the LPS moves inland. This LLJ weakening is the direct dynamic cause of the Maharashtra coast rainfall relief. By 12–16 July, the anomaly pattern reorganises: the fresh Bay low develops a cyclonic circulation at 850 hPa over the north Bay of Bengal, while southwesterly flow strengthens toward the Himalayan foothills. The trough axis, now running from Punjab–Uttarakhand foothills toward the Bay system, delivers moisture efficiently along the entire sub-Himalayan belt and across the eastern states.

VayuMet Model · Mean 200 hPa Wind Speed and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 07–11 July (left) and 12–16 July (right)

200 hPa Wind — Upper Structure Supports Active Monsoon

The upper-level pattern shows the Tibetan Anticyclone (upper-level high over the Tibetan Plateau) well-maintained in both periods. The Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) — the upper-level easterly wind stream that drives divergence aloft, intensifying surface systems and supporting organised convection — remains active over southern India and the Bay of Bengal through 12–16 July. Crucially, the TEJ does not show the marked weakening that would accompany a classical break monsoon upper-level signature. The upper-level divergence over the Bay region supports the development and maintenance of the fresh low-pressure area expected to form during 12–16 July.

District Very Heavy Rain Alerts — Model Guidance

Districts flagged for Very Heavy Rain (115.6–204.4 mm per 24 hours) or Extremely Heavy Rain (≥ 204.5 mm per 24 hours). Model guidance only — verify against latest IMD district warnings.

Date	State / Region	Key Districts	Alert
07 July	Arunachal Pradesh	Lohit	VERY HEAVY
	Mizoram	Lunglei	VERY HEAVY
	Arunachal Pradesh	Lower Dibang Valley, Namsai	HEAVY
	Maharashtra coast	Mumbai, Mumbai Suburban, Palghar, Thane	HEAVY
08 July	Madhya Pradesh — Malwa	Agar Malwa	VERY HEAVY
	Mizoram	Aizawl, Lawngtlai, Lunglei, Serchhip	VERY HEAVY
	Rajasthan	Jhalawar	VERY HEAVY
	Assam	Bajali, Baksa, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Chirang	HEAVY
	Tripura	Gomati, Sipahijala, South Tripura	HEAVY
09 July	Madhya Pradesh — Malwa	Agar Malwa, Rajgarh, Shajapur	VERY HEAVY
	Rajasthan	Jhalawar	VERY HEAVY
	Tripura	Dhalai, Gomati, Khowai, West Tripura	HEAVY
10 July	West Bengal — Foothills	Kalimpong	HEAVY
11 July	Bihar	Khagaria	HEAVY
12 July	Uttar Pradesh — Foothills	Shrawasti	VERY HEAVY
	Uttar Pradesh — Foothills	Bahraich	HEAVY
13 July	Chhattisgarh	Raipur	HEAVY

Always check IMD district bulletins for official warnings. Thresholds: Orange = Very Heavy Rain 115.6–204.4 mm/24 h · Yellow = Heavy Rain 64.5–115.5 mm/24 h. No red (Extremely Heavy Rain ≥ 204.5 mm) alerts in this run.

VayuMet Outlook — 07–16 July 2026

07–11 July — Northeast India and Malwa Plateau Active, Rajasthan Monsoon Advancing

The weakening low-pressure system near the West Bengal–Bangladesh border continues to feed active monsoon conditions over northeast India through 07–08 July. Arunachal Pradesh (Lohit) and Mizoram (Lunglei, Aizawl, Lawngtlai, Serchhip) are under Very Heavy Rain alerts on 07–08 July. The Malwa plateau in Madhya Pradesh (Agar Malwa, Rajgarh, Shajapur) picks up organised heavy to very heavy rainfall on 08–09 July as the trough channel shifts. Eastern Rajasthan sees its first significant organised monsoon rainfall — Jhalawar is flagged for Very Heavy Rain on 08–09 July — indicating the westward advance of the monsoon into Rajasthan. The West Coast spell is largely over; no heavy rain alerts for the Konkan or Mumbai in this period.

12–16 July — Active Monsoon Along Foothills and Eastern India

The key development of this model run is the likely formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal around 12–16 July. As this system organises, it anchors the eastern end of the monsoon trough and pulls it back southward toward the coast, while the western end of the trough remains close to the Himalayan foothills. This V-shaped trough configuration channels Bay of Bengal moisture in two directions simultaneously: westward along the foothills from West Bengal through Bihar, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh, and northward into the Himalayan foothills of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. The result is an active monsoon spell concentrated along this foothills-to-eastern-states corridor. Shrawasti (Uttar Pradesh sub-Himalayan belt) is flagged for Very Heavy Rain on 12 July — the first specific foothills alert for the period. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal during this period.

← All Monsoon Articles