In-depth articles on India weather forecasts, monsoon science, NWP model methodology and how to make the most of VayuMet's data.
IMD forecasts 92% of LPA — India's first below-normal monsoon since 2023. El Niño developing with 82–98% probability across all major agencies. VayuMet CFSv2 analysis reveals severe deficits across northwest and central India Jun–Aug; September outlook carries the widest uncertainty at this lead time. Comparative assessment of IMD, ECMWF SEAS5, NOAA/CPC, WMO/SASCOF-34, JMA and UK Met Office.
A powerful heat wave is gripping Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, UP and Bihar with temperatures 6–9°C above normal. Fazilka (Punjab) forecast to touch 48.7°C on 29 May — the peak day. A line of severe thunderstorms sweeping across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and UP on 30 May is expected to bring dramatic relief, with convective gusts up to 95 km/h over Gurdaspur.
When will the monsoon arrive in your state? Historical onset climatology compared against the 2026 CFSv2 seasonal outlook, with a state-by-state onset date table and tips for tracking on VayuMet.
The GFS model is the backbone of VayuMet's short-range forecasts. This article explains how GFS works for the Indian subcontinent, where it excels, and where you should treat its output with caution.