Update India Monsoon 24 June 2026 : Subdued 24-28 June, Low Pressure Area over NW Bay Signal Heavy Rain Episode 29 June-02 July

Seven days after the 17 June analysis flagged Arabian Sea westerly recovery, the monsoon has delivered on schedule — entering the remaining parts of Maharashtra and parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh on 24 June itself. Yet the GFS 24 June 00Z charts carry a note of patience: the West Coast lies below normal in rainfall through 24-28 June , the 850 hPa jet is still not fully committed to Gujarat, and the MSLP trough north of the Deccan remains suppressed against LTM. The real story emerges in 29 June- 03 July, where a low pressure system developing over the NW Bay of Bengal around 01–02 July catalyses a circulation flip — easterlies set up over Bihar–East UP, the Bay pumps deep moisture into Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and the West Coast finally breaks into above-normal rainfall. A strengthening Tropical Easterly Jet from Trivandrum toward Madagascar reinforces the case for a vigorous active phase through early July.

IMD Monsoon Status — 24 June 2026

IMD's 24 June bulletin confirms the Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, the remaining parts of Maharashtra, and some more parts of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. The monsoon has now covered Mumbai and the Konkan coast, bringing the total coverage to include Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and portions of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

IMD forecasts conditions favourable for further advance into remaining parts of Gujarat, North Arabian Sea, and more of Madhya Pradesh in the next 2–3 days, and into remaining Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh in the subsequent 3–4 days. Warnings of heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls are in force for Konkan and Goa on 24 June, with heavy rain likely over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada through 25–26 June. Gujarat and Saurashtra–Kutch are flagged for isolated to scattered rainfall 24–29 June.

VayuMet-GFS Sub-seasonal Analysis — 24 June 2026 00Z

GFS IC: 24 June 2026 00 UTC. Day 1-5 · 24–28 June · Day 6-10: 29 June–3 July. Anomalies vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean (Mean Sea Level Pressure vs 1981–2010 NCEP R2).

Fig. 1 — Mean Sea Level Pressure (top) · MSLP Anomaly vs Long Term Mean (bottom) · 24–28 June left · 29 June–3 July right

MSLP — Trough Suppressed over Gujarat; Low Pressure Area Signal over Northwest Bay in 29 June–3 July

Monsoon trough is established across Central India (1000–1004 hPa) for 24–28 June but the anomaly shows a positive signal over Gujarat and the Northwest Deccan — trough has not deepened north of Konkan. The critical signal is in 29 June–3 July: a clear negative anomaly develops over the Northwest Bay of Bengal and the Odisha–North Andhra coast, marking a Low Pressure Area forming around 01–02 July — the dominant driver of the second week.

Fig. 2 — Cumulated Rainfall (top) · Rain Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean (bottom) · 24–28 June left · 29 June–3 July right

Precipitation — West Coast Below Long Term Mean 24–28 June, Flipping Positive 29 June–3 July

Heavy rain is confined to Konkan–Goa, the Western Ghats and Northeast India in 24–28 June. The anomaly is unambiguous: negative (below Long Term Mean) along the entire West Coast north of 18°N including Gujarat — onset has occurred but deep moisture is not yet established. In 29 June–3 July the West Coast flips to a positive anomaly as the low-level jet pushes north, while a large positive anomaly covers Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh driven by the Low Pressure Area's cyclonic inflow from the Bay of Bengal.

Fig. 3 — Mean 2 m Temperature (top) · Temperature Anomaly vs June Long Term Mean (bottom) · 24–28 June left · 29 June–3 July right

Temperature — Intense Heat Northwest India; Gradual Cooling Advancing from East

The 24–28 June anomaly shows 5–12°C above Long Term Mean across Rajasthan, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh — pre-monsoon dry air firmly entrenched. South and east India are well within monsoon cooling below 30°C. In 29 June–3 July the Low Pressure Area-driven rains ease the heat over Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, but western Rajasthan and Punjab remain in the heat pocket through the period — the primary heat-stress concern into early July.

Fig. 4 — Mean Wind at 850 hPa (top) · Wind Anomaly vs Long Term Mean (bottom) · 24–28 June left · 29 June–3 July right

850 hPa Wind — Low-Level Jet Stops Short of Gujarat; Easterlies over Bihar–East Uttar Pradesh by 29 June–3 July

The Arabian Sea low-level jet is active along 10–15°N but the anomaly shows a negative signal over the North Arabian Sea and Gulf of Khambhat in 24–28 June — directly explaining the below-normal West Coast rain. Positive anomaly is confined to the Konkan–Goa belt. By 29 June–3 July the Low Pressure Area's inflow drives a clear easterly component over Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, while the low-level jet simultaneously intensifies northward, pushing above-normal westerlies into Gujarat–Saurashtra for the first time this season.

Fig. 5 — Mean Wind at 200 hPa (top) · Wind Anomaly vs Long Term Mean (bottom) · 24–28 June left · 29 June–3 July right · NEW

200 hPa Wind — Tropical Easterly Jet Strengthening; Trivandrum–Madagascar Corridor Bullish

The Tropical Easterly Jet is well established at 15–25 m/s along 10–20°N. The anomaly shows a positive (enhanced easterly) signal from Trivandrum southwestward toward Madagascar — the jet is running above climatological strength, indicating amplified upper-level divergence and sustained deep monsoon convection over the peninsula. In 29 June–3 July this signal intensifies and expands westward into the Arabian Sea, coherent with the Low Pressure Area outbreak. A negative anomaly over Northwest India reflects the poleward-displaced subtropical jet, removing any blocking over the Himalayas.

VayuMet Outlook — 24 June to 3 July 2026

24–28 June: Active monsoon along Konkan, Goa, Kerala, Karnataka, Odisha and Northeast India. West Coast north of Konkan and Gujarat remain below normal — no active spell over Gujarat this week. Heat persists over the Gangetic plains and Northwest India. Heavy to very heavy rain over the Western Ghats and Konkan as per IMD warnings.

29 June–3 July: The Low Pressure Area over the Northwest Bay of Bengal around 01–02 July is the key development. It drives heavy rain over Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, sets up easterlies over Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, and flips the West Coast to above-normal rainfall as the low-level jet commits fully into Gujarat–Saurashtra. This window is also favourable for further monsoon advance into remaining Gujarat, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh. The strengthening Tropical Easterly Jet — already above normal from Trivandrum to Madagascar — underpins this active phase and points to sustained vigour into the first week of July.

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