Bay of Bengal cyclone risk October–December. Andhra Pradesh's long coastline from Srikakulam to Sri City is highly vulnerable to Bay of Bengal cyclonic storms. Visakhapatnam (Vizag) has been struck multiple times — Hudhud (2014) caused catastrophic damage. Use VayuMet's wind gust and MSLP layers for real-time monitoring.
| District / City | Day 1–2 (mm) | Day 3–4 (mm) | Day 5–7 (mm) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visakhapatnam | 5–18 | 12–35 | 20–55 | Moderate |
| Vijayawada (Krishna) | 3–12 | 8–25 | 15–40 | Moderate |
| Guntur | 2–8 | 5–20 | 12–35 | Moderate |
| Tirupati (Chittoor) | 2–8 | 5–18 | 10–28 | Moderate |
| Rajahmundry (E. Godavari) | 5–18 | 10–30 | 20–50 | Moderate |
| Srikakulam | 5–18 | 12–35 | 20–50 | Moderate |
| Kurnool | 2–8 | 5–18 | 10–28 | Moderate |
| Nellore | 2–8 | 5–20 | 10–30 | Moderate |
Note: Coastal AP (Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, East Godavari) receives heavier rainfall from Bay of Bengal systems. GFS is generally reliable for the AP coast.
The north AP coast directly faces Bay of Bengal moisture surges and receives the SW monsoon around 5–10 June. These districts average 1,100–1,200 mm annually. Bay of Bengal depressions tracking from the Odisha coast are the primary rainfall drivers. The 2026 below-normal outlook affects north AP, but the BoB branch is less El Niño-sensitive than the Arabian Sea branch.
The Krishna–Godavari delta region is both the agricultural heartland of AP and highly flood-prone. Both rivers carry catchment rainfall from as far as MP and Maharashtra. Intense Bay of Bengal depressions cause catastrophic floods — 2020 and 2022 floods displaced millions. GFS 6-hourly cumulative rainfall maps on VayuMet are critical for flood monitoring.
Rayalaseema is the driest region of AP — Anantapur averages only 550 mm and frequently experiences drought. It lies in a rain shadow zone between the Western Ghats and Eastern Ghats. El Niño years exacerbate drought risk for Rayalaseema significantly — 2026 is forecast below-normal for this region.