Heat Wave Alert: Pre-monsoon (April–June) heat waves are common over Rajasthan. GFS temperature forecasts are reliable for heat wave tracking — use the Temperature layer on VayuMet to monitor the advance of extreme heat.
Rajasthan receives very little rainfall outside the monsoon season (July–September). Pre-monsoon rainfall events are rare and often associated with western disturbances in the north or isolated convection in the east.
| District / City | Day 1–2 (mm) | Day 3–4 (mm) | Day 5–7 (mm) | Max Temp (°C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–8 | 42–44 |
| Jodhpur | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–5 | 44–46 |
| Jaisalmer | 0 | 0–1 | 0–3 | 46–48 |
| Bikaner | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–4 | 44–46 |
| Udaipur | 0–2 | 0–4 | 2–10 | 40–42 |
| Kota | 0–3 | 1–5 | 2–12 | 42–44 |
| Alwar | 0–3 | 1–6 | 3–12 | 42–44 |
| Bharatpur | 0–3 | 1–6 | 3–14 | 41–43 |
GFS may produce spurious 2–5 mm rainfall blobs over arid Rajasthan. Treat very low rainfall amounts (<5 mm) in western districts with caution during the pre-monsoon period.
2026 National Outlook: IMD's April 2026 Long-Range Forecast projects below-normal seasonal (JJAS) rainfall at 92% of LPA nationally. A developing El Niño (98% probability, NOAA/IRI) suppresses rainfall across central and northwest India — including Rajasthan. With the 2026 Kerala onset forecast ~5 days early (~26 May), the monsoon advance over Rajasthan is also expected ~3–5 days early, but total seasonal rainfall remains below-normal.
Eastern Rajasthan lies at the northern edge of the monsoon's reach and receives the bulk of its rainfall from the Bay of Bengal branch. Normal onset is around 1 July for eastern districts — 2026 onset expected around 26–28 June given the early national progression. However, El Niño historically suppresses rainfall across northern and central India — eastern Rajasthan's 2026 JJAS total is expected below-normal.
The Thar Desert receives less than 300 mm annually — most of it in July–August when the monsoon is fully active over India. Onset in western Rajasthan is typically not until 10–15 July. In El Niño years, the monsoon's westward penetration into arid Rajasthan weakens — rainfall in 2026 is expected below-normal to deficient over most of western Rajasthan.