Monsoon Update 11 July 2026 — Break Monsoon Conditions Confirmed for 11–15 July, Trough Anchored at Himalayan Foothills; Severe Heat Stress Over Northwest India; Fresh Bay Low Likely 16–20 July

The VayuMet model's 11 July 2026 run confirms what was flagged as a watch signal in the 07 July run: a break monsoon episode is now underway for 11–15 July. While the monsoon completed its advance across the entire country on 09 July, it has entered a weak phase over much of the covered region — the monsoon trough has shifted firmly to the Himalayan foothills, and all five diagnostic fields — Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly, rainfall distribution, 2 m temperature, 850 hPa wind anomaly, and 200 hPa wind — consistently show the classic break monsoon signature. Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha), peninsular India, Maharashtra, and Gujarat are entering a dry spell with below-normal rainfall likely through 15 July. Meanwhile, northwest India — Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi — is under severe heat stress with temperature anomalies of >8°C above normal. Active monsoon rainfall continues along the Himalayan foothills (Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal) and northeast India (Assam, Meghalaya). Looking ahead, a fresh low-pressure area is likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal around 16–20 July — one run later than the 07 July forecast indicated — and this system will bring a significant monsoon revival for eastern India in the third week of July.

India Meteorological Department Monsoon Status — 11 July 2026

Chart Analysis — VayuMet Model 11 July 2026 00Z

VayuMet Model · Mean Sea Level Pressure · 11–15 July (left) and 16–20 July (right) · Contours at 2 hPa · Anomaly vs 1981–2010 NCEP R2

Mean Sea Level Pressure — Trough at Foothills; Bay Low Developing by 16–20 July

The 11–15 July panel shows the monsoon trough axis clearly positioned along the Himalayan foothills, with a negative anomaly of −6 to −8 hPa confined to the foothills belt from Punjab through northeast India. A positive pressure anomaly of +2 to +4 hPa covers central and peninsular India — the suppressed pressure pattern that accompanies break monsoon conditions. The 16–20 July panel shows a significant change: a closed low-pressure centre develops over the north Bay of Bengal near 20°N/90°E, with an associated negative anomaly of −6 to −8 hPa deepening over the Bay. This is the fresh low-pressure area that will drive the monsoon revival for eastern India.

VayuMet Model · 5-day Cumulative Rainfall and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 11–15 July (left) and 16–20 July (right)

Precipitation — Textbook Break Monsoon Distribution; Strong Revival Signal 16–20 July

The 11–15 July rainfall anomaly panel shows the defining feature of a break monsoon episode: strongly positive anomalies (+40 to +85 mm above Long Term Mean) confined to the sub-Himalayan belt — Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, and northeast India — while Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Karnataka, and most of peninsular India show strong negative anomalies (−20 to −60 mm below normal). The 16–20 July panel shows a dramatic reversal: a large very-positive anomaly centre develops over the Bay of Bengal and Odisha–West Bengal coast as the fresh low intensifies, while Bihar, Jharkhand, and northeast India also see strengthening positive signals. The foothills remain active throughout both periods.

VayuMet Model · Mean 2 m Temperature and Anomaly vs June Long Term Mean 1991–2020 · 11–15 July (left) and 16–20 July (right)

2 m Temperature — Severe Heat Stress Over Northwest India Through 15 July

The 11–15 July temperature anomaly shows the most severe heat signal of the 2026 season: a +8 to +14°C above-normal anomaly blanketing Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and western Uttar Pradesh, with maximum temperatures in these regions likely reaching 42–46°C. Central India also remains 4–6°C above normal under dry and sunny skies. A cool band is restricted to the Himalayan foothills and northeast India where active rainfall provides cloud cover and evaporative cooling. By 16–20 July, the pattern remains largely warm over northwest India, but the eastern flank — West Bengal, Odisha, Bihar — begins to cool as the Bay low and associated cloud cover approach.

VayuMet Model · Mean 850 hPa Wind Speed and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 11–15 July (left) and 16–20 July (right)

850 hPa Wind — Reduced Central Plains Flow Confirms Break Monsoon; Bay Circulation 16–20 July

At 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km altitude), the 11–15 July anomaly shows enhanced flow along the western coast and into the sub-Himalayan foothills, but significantly reduced flow (negative anomaly, −2 to −4 m/s) over the central Gangetic plains and central India — a direct consequence of the monsoon trough having migrated northward. This reduced low-level moisture flux into central India is the dynamic mechanism suppressing rainfall over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and the peninsular region. By 16–20 July, a developing cyclonic circulation anomaly appears over the north Bay of Bengal as the fresh low-pressure area organises, while the broad flow over the rest of India remains below normal.

VayuMet Model · Mean 200 hPa Wind Speed and Anomaly vs 1991–2020 Long Term Mean · 11–15 July (left) and 16–20 July (right)

200 hPa Wind — Anomalously Strong Westerly Jet Confirms Break Monsoon Upper Structure

The upper-level pattern provides the clearest break monsoon confirmation in this run. The 11–15 July anomaly shows a very strong positive anomaly (+8 to +12 m/s above normal) at 30–35°N — the subtropical westerly jet is anomalously strong and positioned slightly south of its climatological summer position over northwest India. This strengthened upper-level westerly suppresses divergence aloft over central India, inhibiting deep convection and organised monsoon rainfall below. The Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) simultaneously shows a negative anomaly over the Bay of Bengal. By 16–20 July, the anomaly pattern begins to reorganise: the positive westerly anomaly shifts northward and the TEJ over the Bay strengthens, improving the upper-level divergence environment that will support the developing Bay low-pressure area.

District Heavy Rain Alert Districts — 11–17 July 2026 (Model Guidance)

Alert activity is strongly concentrated in northeast India and the sub-Himalayan foothills, consistent with the break monsoon pattern. Central India, peninsular India, Maharashtra, and Gujarat show no model alerts for this period.

Date	State / Region	Districts	Alert
11 July	West Bengal — Foothills	Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri	HEAVY
	West Bengal — Foothills	Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri	HEAVY
12 July	Assam	Barpeta	VERY HEAVY
	Assam	Bajali, Bongaigaon, Chirang, Nalbari	HEAVY
	Meghalaya	North Garo Hills	HEAVY
13 July	Arunachal Pradesh	Namsai	HEAVY
	Chhattisgarh	Balrampur	HEAVY
15 July	Manipur / Nagaland	Jiribam, Noney, Pherzawl (Manipur) · Tuensang (Nagaland)	HEAVY
17 July	West Bengal	Birbhum	HEAVY

Always check IMD district bulletins for official warnings. Thresholds: Orange = Very Heavy Rain 115.6–204.4 mm/24 h · Yellow = Heavy Rain 64.5–115.5 mm/24 h. No red (Extremely Heavy Rain) alerts in this run. Sparse alert count reflects break monsoon suppression over central India.

VayuMet Outlook — 11–20 July 2026

11–15 July — Break Monsoon: Foothills Active, Central India Dry, Northwest India Under Heat Stress

Break monsoon conditions are confirmed and likely to persist through approximately 15 July. Active Heavy to Very Heavy Rain is expected to continue along the Himalayan foothills — Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal (Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri) — and across northeast India (Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh). Assam's Barpeta district is the sole Very Heavy Rain alert in this run, on 12 July. Tripura, Manipur, and Nagaland see scattered Heavy Rain events through 15 July. Central India — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Karnataka — faces below-normal rainfall; the monsoon trough displacement northward means the moisture feed to these regions is suppressed. Maharashtra and Gujarat are also dry. Northwest India (Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi) is under severe heat stress — maximum temperatures likely 42–46°C in Rajasthan; Delhi may touch 42°C. The note of relative relief: Chhattisgarh's Balrampur district (bordering the sub-Himalayan foothills) shows a Heavy Rain signal on 13 July, indicating the southernmost fringe of the active foothills zone.

16–20 July — Bay Low Developing; Monsoon Revival for Eastern India

The most significant signal in this run for the 16–20 July period is the development of a fresh low-pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal. This system — first anticipated in the 07 July run for 12–16 July, now pushed back by approximately four days — is expected to organise near 20°N/90°E and will reinvigorate the monsoon trough. The primary beneficiaries will be West Bengal (including Birbhum — already flagged for Heavy Rain on 17 July), Odisha, Bihar, and Jharkhand, where rainfall is likely to increase sharply from the dry spell conditions of 11–15 July. Northeast India (Assam, Meghalaya) remains continuously active through the entire period. The foothills belt (Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh) will continue to see active rainfall. Central India should begin to see a gradual recovery in rainfall from around 17–18 July as the Bay system's circulation re-establishes the monsoon trough over the plains. Northwest India heat stress will begin to ease as cloud cover increases from the east.

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